Research
Research
"Valuing Statistical Life Using Seniors' Medical Spending " joint with Nicolai V. Kuminoff and Jonathan Ketcham (Revise & Resubmit @ AEJ: Economic Policy)
Abstract : This study provides the first revealed preference evidence on the value of statistical life (VSL) for US seniors aged 67 to 97, a crucial input to evaluating polices that affect mortality. We derive VSL measures for seniors from the rates at which they choose to consume medical care relative to other private goods, and by the effects of their choices on their survival probabilities. These effects are estimated from novel data linking survey information to the respondents’ reconciled Medicare records. Instrumental variable estimators provide robust evidence that the mean VSL is below $1 million (year 2010 dollars) and that the value per statistical life year is below $ 100,000. We also find that the VSL decreases with age, and, given age, increases with income, education, and health and is higher for women and people who never smoked.
"Doctoring a Solution: Promoting Health Advancements in Underserved Areas with Increased Physician Supply" with Md Amzad Hossain
Abstract: We investigate the impact of increased physician supply in underserved areas on a wide range of health outcomes. In Bangladesh, a government intervention in 2013 boosted physician supply by over 36\%. Leveraging the variations generated by the placement of these doctors in a two-way fixed-effects estimation strategy, we find that the policy resulted in a 1.56 percent reduction in mortality rate per year, driven by a reduction in mortality from causes amenable to health care. We attribute this reduction to increased doctor visits, a shift in treatment-seeking from unqualified personnel to qualified physicians, and an increased likelihood of hospitalization at government facilities conditional on illness. Our cost-effectiveness analysis indicates that every 1 USD invested in the program returned around 62 USD, suggesting that increasing the number of physicians in underserved developing regions can be a cheap yet effective intervention to promote better health outcomes.
Abstract : I develop and calibrate a dynamic life-cycle model of health investment for people over age 65 that allows me to evaluate the efficiency and equity of policies targeting health and mortality. The model allows for dynamic complementarity between health (quality) and longevity (quantity of life). To account for measurement errors in any given proxy measure for health, I estimate the health production using a dynamic latent factor model. My results imply that returns to an additional $1,000 medical spending is on average 0.3 percentage points and increases with age. The framework allows me to estimate the value of a statistical life (VSL) and the value of disease prevention. I find that the VSL at age 67 is well below the conventional estimates for younger, healthier workers, and that the VSL declines with age. I also find that dynamic complementarity is quantitatively important. For example, my results suggest that a 10% reduction in mortality risk from the baseline increase VSL by about 3% and the willingness to pay to avoid Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease by 4% at age 67. Finally, I use the model to evaluate the morbidity and mortality benefits to seniors from the Clean Air Act and find that it has a benefit-cost ratio of approximately 12:1. I also find that by reducing mortality among seniors, the Clean Air Act increased average VSL by 8%, and total health benefits by 6%.
"Effects of Depression on Illicit Drug Use among Young Adults: Evidence from the 9/11 Attack" with Francesco Agostinelli and Alex Rivadeneira
Abstract : We use the 9/11 terrorist attack as an instrument for depression in order to understand its causal effects on illicit drug consumption among young adults age 18-28. Comparing individuals interviewed before and after 9/11, we find a large and significant jump in symptoms of depression. Our results imply that, depression triggers illicit drug consumption with heterogeneous impact for different drugs. We find substantial heterogeneity in these effects by sub-groups of population such as gender, race, cognitive ability and education. We also partially identify the impact of depression on productivity in school/workplace and find large effects for students. Overall, our findings suggest treating depression will help to curb illicit drug consumption.
"The Marginal Value of Medicare Spending " joint with Nicolai V. Kuminoff and Jonathan Ketcham
"Poverty and Children’s Interactions with Social Care: Evidence from the Two-Child Limit" with Jo Blanden
Retrospective Analysis of the Health Benefits to Seniors from Regulating Fine Particulate Matter. Co-Investigator. April 2021 - March 2022. US Environmental Protection Agency. $24,266. (with Kelly Bishop, Nicolai V. Kuminoff and Jonathan Ketcham )
Socio-economic and Health Impact of Spatial Redistribution of Pollution: Evidence from Industrial Relocation. Co-Investigator. March 2025 - September 2026. International Growth Center. £27,568 (with Atonu Rabbani, Md Amzad Hossain and Abu S. Sonchoy)